The Future of Broadband in South Africa


The study focuses on the deployment and uptake of broadband access networks and services in South Africa, including both fixed line and wireless access technologies.

Study focus areas and objectives

Market sizing, forecasting, and segmentation of the broadband services market in South Africa. Areas of emphasis include drivers and inhibitors, infrastructure deployment and funding, competitive trends in the market, and a brief overview of international trends such as the relative uptake of key technologies shaping the market, the penetration of devices such as smartphones and tablets, and the impact of Wifi and optical fibre access (FTTx).

Quantitative analysis and forecasts

This study is updated annually, and a key objective of the research is to provide up-to-date market sizing and forecasts, while illustrating the major trends currently and those expected in the next five years.

The study is based on a combination of primary and secondary research and analysis, including an update of BMI-T’s baseline internet and other data services model. The underlying model for the market analysis and forecasts is a bottom-up model by customer group, lending a customer-centric focus to the study in terms of residential vs business trends in access technologies and broadband adoption. Forecasts are based on market scenario analysis, which includes a review of international trends as well as the specific nuances of the local South African environment, including future government policy impact such as SA Connect, and competitive industry dynamics.

The report analyses the rate of rollout of both FTTx and wireless loops, and the impact thereof on the overall competitive market structure, a look at competing broadband services including DSL, Metro Ethernet, Fixed Wireless, 3G WCDMA/HSPA and LTE services. The analysis considers customer uptake, the impact of decreasing prices on ARPUs, and which players will be the chief beneficiaries of the growth trends.

Segmentation

Access technology analysis

  • Broadband market overview forecast and segmentation by access technology
  • Analysis of access network deployment especially FTTx

Customer group analysis

  • Business vs. residential segmentation in terms of services uptake and revenues
  • Forecasts by customer group and access technology

Key questions answered:

  • What is the size and shape of the broadband access market in South Africa?
  • Which service categories will grow the fastest in future?
  • What technology trends will have the greatest impact?
  • What is the shape of the market by customer group?
  • How rapidly will broadband access networks be rolled out and adopted, in the SA business and residential market sectors?
  • Which players will benefit from the growth?

Research team

Lead analyst for this study is Brian Neilson (BMI-T Research Director and senior telecoms analyst).

Deliverables and format

The outcomes of the research and analysis are documented in a rich PowerPoint document with supporting tables in Excel. Clients are also entitled to a presentation/workshop in Johannesburg (may be combined with other topics at BMI-T’s discretion).

Further information

For further information and details on how to subscribe to this research please contact Anita Mathews on 011 540 8000 or anita@bmi-t.co.za.