SA Voice Services Market Forecast & Analysis


This study provides a quantitative analysis and forecast of the South African fixed line and mobile voice services markets as a whole, and a more detailed focus on the largest segments.

Quantitative analysis and forecasts

A key objective of this study is to provide up-to-date market sizing and forecasts, while illustrating the major trends currently and those expected in the next five years. These include: fixed mobile substitution, fixed mobile convergence, service bundling, flat rate pricing, interconnection pricing including the effects of regulatory changes on voice services, services-based competition and drivers and enablers for widespread VoIP uptake.

The study is based on a combination of primary and secondary research and analysis, including an update of BMI-T’s baseline voice services model.

The underlying market model is a top-down model based on information collected from service providers (i.e. where broad data on revenues, subscribers, and ARPUs are available from operators), and bottom-up (number of connections/subscriptions per customer group, service penetration, traffic minutes by route, and average revenue per line or service per customer group). The analysis is also informed by BMI-T's most recent corporate and SME user surveys. Forecasts are based on a market scenario analysis, which includes a review of international trends as well as the specific nuances of the local South African environment, including future regulatory and competitive industry dynamics.

Segmentation

Traditional voice services

  • Fixed and mobile voice services market overview segmentation and forecast
  • Segmentation by service type and route/destination
  • Segmentation by number of connections, traffic minutes by route, and average revenue per line or service per customer group

Emerging voice services

  • Minutes of use including substitution analysis between dominant routings to mobile network and all VoIP routings
  • Emergence of converged and mobile SIP offerings
  • SIP services provided by traditional PSTN players (Telkom and Neotel) vs alternative voice players’ VoIP services
  • Revenue forecasts

Key questions answered:

  • What is the size and shape of the voice services market in South Africa?
  • Which service categories will grow (or shrink) the fastest in future?
  • What technology trends will have the greatest impact?
  • Fixed mobile convergence: when and how will this impact?
  • Outlook for VoIP/SIP versus other emerging alternative voice services.
  • How will the fortunes of various broad categories of players play out in future?
  • What will be the impact of regulatory trends on the market?

Research team

Lead analyst for this study is Brian Neilson (BMI-T Research Director and senior telecoms analyst).

Deliverables and format

The outcomes of the research and analysis are documented in a rich PowerPoint document with supporting tables in Excel. Clients are also entitled to a presentation/workshop in Johannesburg (may be combined with other topics at BMI-T’s discretion). 

Further information

For further information and details on how to subscribe to this syndicated research please contact Anita Matthews on 011 540 8000 or anita@bmi-t.co.za.